JAPAN'S SUCCESS IN RESTORING BIRTH RATE

 Restoration of the Japan birth rate, long-term measures since 1990, support for integrated marriage, pregnancy, childbirth, and childcare

Japan has long been a country with serious social problems due to the declining birthrate and aging population. It is the first major country to lose its population, excluding factors such as war. The Japan's population began to decline in 2011 (according to UN statistical standards). It decreased from 128.13 million in 2010 to 128.08 million in 2011. Until last year, the population had declined for 11 consecutive years. One of the reasons why the Japan economy has stagnated for 30 years is population stagnation and decline. 

Japan's population decline had been predicted for some time. The total fertility rate (the number of children a woman is expected to produce) fell below 2.0 in 1975 and fell to the 1.5 in the late 1980s. 

However, Japan succeeded in restoring the birth rate. The birth rate, which fell to 1.26 in 2005, rose to 1.45 in 2015 and remained at 1.30 last year when the novel coronavirus hit. The United Nations predicted that the Japan birth rate would rise slightly to the 1.5 level in the 2060s.

JAPAN'S SUCCESS TO RESTORE BIRTH RATE

South Korea is the exact opposite of Japan. The birth rate is crashing to an unprecedented level in the world. In 2000 alone, South Korea's birth rate was 1.48, higher than Japan (1.37). However, in 2018, the birth rate was 0.98, the first time in the world that the birth rate fell below 1. It fell to 0.81 last year and crashed to the 0.75 level in the second quarter of this year. 

What is the reason why the birth rate in Japan is at a low level, but it is persistently low in South Korea compared to the gradual increase? In Japan, this is seen as the result of the long-term and sustainable promotion of policies to overcome the declining birthrate. The Japan began responding to the declining birthrate in 1990. The budget was invested sustainably and childcare allowances were increased. This year, it decided to establish the Child and Family Agency to integrate the maternity and childcare support policies scattered across 11 ministries. On the other hand, South Korea began to create countermeasures in '06, and even that was not authorized to do so, but only the organization of the Committee for the Declining Birthrate and Aging Society was established. 

The total Japan birth rate (the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) rose for a decade from 2006 to 2015. The birth rate, which dropped to 1.26 in '05, rose to 1.45 in '15. Last year, it maintained the 1.30 birthrate level, which is the lower limit of the birth rate that can avoid the "population precipice". In order to get out of the "pitfalls of the declining birthrate" that society as a whole takes for granted, the Japan government was one of the first to embark on measures to address the declining birthrate. 

In 1990, when the birthrate dropped to 1.53 children, the Japan government held the "Liaison Conference on the Environment for Healthy Childbirth and Rearing" and formalized the declining birthrate as a national problem. The budget invested in 09~2019 alone amounted to 40.8684 trillion yen (about 389 trillion won). Even now, more than 5 trillion yen is spent every year on measures to address the declining birthrate. 

Population experts in Japan point out that it will take a considerable amount of time for the effects of measures to address the declining birthrate to appear. The Japan began in 1990 and took more than 15 years, as the effects began in 2006. 

Japan has been praised for being able to break out of the "ultra-low birthrate trap" for the time being, while promoting measures to overcome the declining birthrate for a long time. Cho Young-tae, director of the Center for Population Policy Research at Seoul National University, explained this, saying, "If the total birth rate is 1.3 or less and persists for more than three years, it is unlikely to rise back to more than 1.3." South Korea's birth rate rose to 1.3 at one point in '12 after falling below 1.3 in '02, but then repeatedly crashed and fell to 0.75 in the second quarter of this year. The United Nations predicts that the Japan fertility rate will not fall below 1.3 in the future. 

The Japan government has been continuously promoting policies to overcome the declining birthrate for more than 30 years. First, the budget was concentrated on creating a child-rearing environment for dual-income couples who were giving up childbirth due to the lack of an environment for raising children. The childcare allowance was increased to 10,000 yen per month (15,000 yen depending on the region and age). We increased the number of nursery schools and eliminated the number of children on waiting lists (children who cannot go to nursery schools due to the overflow of capacity). 

In order to increase the percentage of women who have given birth to their first child to 70%, we have also created a policy to create a work environment where work and childcare can be done at the same time. The Child Care and Family Care Leave Act was also revised to increase the rate of childcare leave for men in the current low 10% to 30% by 2030. 

Miho Iwasawa, director of the Population Change Research Department at the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, said, "The childbirth and childcare support system is gradually exerting its effects, as seen in the higher employment and childbirth rates of highly educated women." 

In 2021, the number of children of highly educated women with a college degree or higher averaged 1.74, the first increase in 19 years. After 10 years, the birth rate was particularly high among urban college-educated women who married in their 30s. This is contrary to the perception that women are more likely to have fewer children as a result of increased social advancement and higher marriage age. Thanks to the government'Japan s continuous support for the childcare environment and work style reforms, highly educated women are now able to balance work and childcare. 

The birth rate of female employees of ITOCHU Corporation, one of the companies that Japan university students most want to join, was 1.97 in 2021. This is more than double the number of people in 2010 (0.94). An ITOCHU Corporation official said, "As long as work styles are improved, it can be interpreted that highly educated women will actively have children." 

The perception among Japan that "if you get married, you will have at least two children" also contributed to a certain part of the rebound in the birth rate. The ideal number of children for Japan couples has remained around two for the past 40 years. If the childbirth and childcare environment is properly arranged, there is room for the birth rate to increase further.