U.S. EMPLOYMENT RATE RISES IN THE LAST QUARTER OF 2022

 UNITED STATES EMPLOYMENT RATE DATA FROM THE LAST QUARTER 2022

U.S. employment increased by 239,000 in October, securing staff during year-end sales season - Private survey

According to the October National Employment Report released by ADP, a U.S. private employment service company, the number of nonfarm payrolls (excluding the government sector) increased by 239,000 from the previous month. Employment growth exceeded the revised previous month's 192,000 and extended the pace of increase for the second consecutive month. It also exceeded the market forecast compiled by Dow Jones (up 195,000 jobs). In preparation for the year-end sales season, there was a movement to increase recruitment in the service industry such as restaurants, accommodations, and retail.

The number of people employed in the service increased by 247,000 in October. By industry, leisure and lodging increased by 210,000 and logistics by 84,000. On the other hand, manufacturing and information services decreased by 20,000 and 17,000.

By office size, medium-sized establishments with 50~499 employees increased the number of employees by 218,000 and drove the overall growth. The number of small establishments with 1~49 employees was also increased by 25,000. On the other hand, large companies with 500 or more employees reduced their employment by 4,000. The median annual salary increased by 7.7% year-on-year. The rate of increase was down 0.1 percentage points from 7.8% in the previous month. Those who changed jobs rose 15.2% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from 15.7% in the previous month.

ADP economist Nella Richardson called payroll growth "very strong," but "payroll growth was concentrated in some industries." "Interest-sensitive producers are scaling back, and there are signs that the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy is slowing labor demand," he explained.

ADP works with Stanford University's Digital Economy Lab to compile and analyze payrolls. The ADP's employment report is released before the U.S. Department of Labor employment report, but is intended to supplement the employment report, not predict it.

In the October employment report released on November 4, the market predicts that the number of nonfarm payrolls will increase by about 205,000.

UNITED STATES EMLOYMENT RATE INCREASED DURING THE LAST QUARTER OF 2022

U.S. employment up 127,000 in November, well below forecasts - Private survey

According to the National Employment Report for November released by ADP, a U.S. private employment service company, the number of employees in the nonfarm sector (excluding the government sector) increased by 127,000 from the previous month. The increase was the lowest since January 2021 and well below the Dow Jones aggregate's market forecast of 190,000.

By industry, the number of employees in the manufacturing industry decreased by 100,000. Financial services payrolls fell by 34,000 and professional and business services fell by 77,000. Meanwhile, the number of employees in leisure and accommodation services increased by 224,000, and staffing was expanded for the holiday season, when passenger traffic increases.

By office size, medium-sized establishments with 50~499 employees increased the number of employees by 246,000. Small establishments with 1~49 employees were reduced by 51,000, and large companies with 500 or more employees were reduced by 68,000.

The median annual income increased by 7.6% year-on-year. Growth has slowed for five consecutive months, but remains high. The annual income of those who changed jobs increased by 15.1% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage point from 15.2% in the previous month.

ADP economist Nella Richardson analyzes that "the effect of the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) tightening of monetary policy is evident." "The rapid replacement of personnel that spread due to the new coronavirus disaster has calmed down, and the number of people who leave the company is decreasing."

ADP works with Stanford University's Digital Economy Lab to compile and analyze payrolls. The ADP's employment report is released before the U.S. Department of Labor employment report, but is intended to supplement the employment report, not predict it.

In the November employment report released on December 2, the market predicts that the number of nonfarm payrolls will increase by about 200,000.

U.S. employment increases by 235,000 in private survey during December, large companies and IT are wary of the future

According to the December National Employment Report released by ADP, a U.S. private employment services company, the number of nonfarm payrolls (excluding the government sector) increased by 235,000 from the previous month, far exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, according to a survey released on the same day by Challenger Gray & Christmas, a private research firm, U.S. companies and government agencies planned to cut jobs in December by 43,651, down 43% from the previous month. While the overall situation surrounding U.S. employment is strong, large corporations and the IT industry have begun to drastically reduce their workforce due to concerns about an economic downturn.

According to the National Employment Report, employment in small and medium-sized establishments and services was particularly strong, beating the Dow Jones market forecast of an increase of 153,000 jobs. By industry, leisure and accommodation services increased by 123,000, professional and business services by 52,000, and education and medical services by 42,000.

By office size, small establishments with 1~49 employees increased the number of employees by 195,000. Medium-sized establishments with 50~499 employees also increased by 191,000. Meanwhile, large companies with 500 or more employees reduced their employment by 151,000.

ADP economist Nella Richardson said the labor market was partially tight. "The growth rate of the number of employees varies greatly depending on the industry and the size of the business," he explained.

ADP is working with Stanford University to analyze payrolls. The employment report is intended to supplement the U.S. Department of Labor's employment report, not to predict it. In the employment report released on January 6, the market predicts that the number of nonfarm payrolls will increase by about 200,000.

The Challenger survey, which saw a significant month-on-month decline in job cuts by U.S. companies and government agencies, also mentioned plans by tech companies to cut their jobs significantly. 37% of the job cuts announced in December were by IT companies, bringing the total to 16,193 jobs.

Plans to reduce jobs increased significantly in November. Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, explained, "While labor demand remains strong in the U.S. economy as a whole, many companies are wary of a downturn in the economy." "As we enter 2023, more and more companies are taking a cautious stance on hiring," he said.

In the 2022 annual tally, 363,824 job cuts were announced, and IT companies were more than one-quarter to 97,171. It was the second lowest job cuts since 1993, when Challenger began researching its monthly job reduction plans. The lowest was in 2021.